Economic downturn: Malcolm Moore’s Yangtze river delta trip

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Moore in Wenzhou; photo courtesy of the journalist

Malcolm Moore is bureau chief of The Telegraph‘s Shanghai bureau. Moore is currently traveling around Jiangsu and Zhejiang province, or the Yangtze river delta area, trying to assess the Chinese financial situation.

Malcolm’s blog can be found at the Telegraph site, and the trip also has its own special page.

From Cixi city in Zhejiang province, Malcolm answered some questions about what myths he is debunking and how the Yangtze river delta compares to the economic downturn in China’s south:

What has surprised you doing interviews in the Yangtze river delta? Is the economic situation a lot worse or better than you had expected?

I think the situation is a lot more complicated than the picture that has emerged either in the Chinese or foreign media. On the export side, some areas, such as shoes and toys, have clearly been hit hard. Others, especially the low-cost goods which China is famous for, appear to be flourishing as people tighten their belts and look for value.

One myth that I think we have debunked is that there are millions of migrants being fired and spoiling for a fight. It’s true that a large number of migrants have returned to the countryside, but the ones we spoke to, everywhere we went, said it was an economic choice. They think they will be better off, in terms of quality of life, inland. The wage gap has closed, the cost of living is far cheaper, and they can be with their friends and family.

The inability of many factories to pay overtime wages in the downturn seems to have been the final straw. They may have got a raw deal, but then migrants have always been treated badly. The ones who have been rioting are the ones who weren’t paid.

Overall, I’ve seen the wisdom and speed of the government policies to kick-start the economy and I’m optimistic.

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In Yiwu. Photo from Moore’s Telegraph blog

Is there a particular image of the recession happening in the area that has stuck in your mind?

I think the desolation at the wholesale market in Yiwu convinced me there is a problem, but even here we found people who were optimistic. The most pessimistic said sales were down 20pc to 30pc, and that’s not the end of the world. We haven’t seen many shuttered factories in Zhejiang or Jiangsu, and I don’t think they are as badly affected as Guangdong.

How do you think they have responded to a foreign reporter trespassing in the area? Do you think they set out to answer your questions truthfully?

I’m always astonished at how many people are happy to speak to us. After all, there’s never any benefit in speaking to a foreign reporter and there’s usually a risk of some sort. We’ve spoken to hundreds of workers and factory bosses this week and were only turned away once, at a state-owned company. Having said that, I don’t expect everyone was as frank with us as they might have been - obviously exporters don’t want their customers to think they’re in financial trouble, so I’m sure they gave us a slightly rosier picture.

Which industries are most affected in the area?

There was a unanimous opinion that the shoe industry is suffering the most. I hadn’t previously understood how big the industry is - it turns out billions of pairs each year, one-fifth of the world’s supply. The shoe and toy industries alone could account for all the migrants who have been fired. But I think it’s problems started before the financial crisis, with tariffs from the EU and the rising cost of leather / labour.

Any other thoughts on your trip so far – on traveling as a foreign journalist in China (for the first time?) and what you have seen?

I opened our bureau last July, and we’ve done about a dozen trips since then - to Xinjiang, Sichuan, Guangdong, Hubei, Hebei, Chongqing, Macau, and so on. But I think this has been the most interesting to date. We’ve exploded a lot of the myths that are going round in both the domestic and foreign media and I would encourage people to take what they read with a pinch of salt.

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