Low-cost drug list to transform pharmaceutical industry in China

drugs

Economic Information Daily (经济参考报), a business newspaper published by Xinhua News Agency, ran a story on November 17 reporting that the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) may soon release a list of drugs that must be sold at low prices in China with the aim of reducing the financial burden of medical care on citizens and hospitals. The list may have a significant impact on the pharmaceutical industry: some out-of-production low-cost drugs will be protected and return to the market, while the makers of high cost drugs on the list will have their profit margins squeezed. The article also predicts that the pharmaceutical industry may soon see another round of mergers and acquisitions.

“Low-cost drugs” refers to the cheaper of the drug options used to treat a particular medical condition. The article quotes an informed source as saying that NDRC is expected to set the standard for low-cost drugs at a daily average cost of three yuan for western drugs and five yuan for processed Traditional Chinese Medicine (中成药, sometimes called “Chinese patent medicine”). The criteria and the list will be reviewed and adjusted every two to four years.

Low margins have been the primary cause that discourages pharmaceutical companies from selling low-cost drugs. As a result, hospitals are sometimes unable to obtain low-cost drugs, leaving patients with no choice but to buy more expensive alternatives.

The NDRC policy is likely to be welcome to generic drug makers are concerned, but it is bound to hurt companies that focus on high-cost drugs. The Economic Information Daily reports that industry insiders believe that generic makers such as Shanxi Yabao Pharma, Beijing Tongrentang, North China Pharma, Baiyunshan Pharma , and Yunnan Baiyao will benefit while Johnson & Johnson, GlaxoSmithKline, Merck, and other producers of out-of-patent drugs will be negatively affected.

“Makers of insured drugs will hopefully see a change to their dismal state of affairs. Once companies see stable incomes, further market consolidation will follow. Some companies that are not in the industry or preparing to withdraw may merge to achieve economies of scale in production and distribution,” according to an “industry insider” quoted by the report.

The report also quotes Shi Lichen, general manager of the healthcare center of Alliance PKU Management Consultants saying that “the cap of three yuan and five yuan per day is essentially price insurance for pharmaceutical companies. As a result, many large low-cost companies may ramp up production.” Many small companies will have a very good chance to grow, and many will see their market cap increasing. And those smaller companies, previously overlooked in M&A, who hold production permits for generic drugs may become sought-after acquisition targets.

Companies and brands affected
Shanxi Yabao Pharma (SHA:600351)
Beijing Tongrentang (SHA:600085; HKG:8138)
North China Pharma (SHA:600812) (SHA:600085; HKG:8138)
Baiyunshan Pharma (SHA:600332; HKG 00874)
Yunnan Baiyao Group (SZ:000538)
Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ)
GlaxoSmithKline plc (NYSE:GSK)
Merck & Co. (NYSE:MRK)

Links and sources
经济参考报: 发改委拟出台低价药清单1.16万亿市值药企面临变局

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China Minsheng Bank to release high-interest debit card as competition heats up

MSYH

Allied with Taobao and other online marketplaces, Chinese money market funds such as Yu’ebao are making inroads into markets traditionally dominated by banks (see previous Danwei post). Not only are these fund products more accessible for Internet users, their interest rates, usually hovering around 5%, are more than ten times the 0.35% offered to most current account holders.

Feeling the pain, banks are fighting back. The webportal China Finance Information 中国财经信息网 reported on November 12 that China Minsheng Bank has been conducting tests to prepare for a December release of a new type of bank card that promises to offer interest rates on a par with most money market fund products. This move is being hailed by the banking industry as “the first shot of a counterattack” against upstart online financing.

The CFI article quotes the Q3 results of several banks indicating a slowdown in growth rates for deposits. Among them, China Merchants Bank, CITIC, and China Minsheng Bank achieved growth rates of 0.25%, 0.71%, and 0.26%, respectively.

Companies and brands affected
China Minsheng Bank (HKG:1988; SHA:600016)
China Merchants Bank (HKG:3968; SHA:600036)
China CITIC Bank Corp. Ltd. (HKG:0998; SHA:601998)

Image: Bloomberg

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Air pollution boosts companies in emissions analysis and filtration

stock charts air pollution


It may just confirm what we already know — the smog is getting worse: China’s Meteorological Administration says that there were more smoggy days nationwide this year than anytime during the past 52 years. In Beijing, that includes half of the days in the month of October.

As if number alone is not alarming enough, several media articles cropped up this week that added a sense of urgency to the issue. Some such stories may seem anecdotal. On Tuesday, China News Service ran a headline shouting “smog causes cancer; youngest patient is only eight years old”. The story tells a sad tale of an eight-year-old girl who was diagnosed with malignant lung tumor, a disease that is usually associated with smokers and the elderly. Though grounded on little more than speculation, the article suggests a a cause by describing that the child’s home was next to a dusty road. On Wednesday, Hong Kong’s South Morning Post published an article that the smog might have a role to play in police’s failure to prevent a terrorist attack, in which a Uighur man smashed his vehicle against one of the bridges in front of Tian’anmen, killing everyone onboard and several passers-by on his way. Low visibility caused by smog can blind surveillance cameras, says the newspaper.

Other reports on the air more official sources. The Chinese Academy of Social Science and the China Meteorological Administration just released a “green paper”, which is supposed to be a comprehensive review of the country’s environmental situation. The book attributes a number of increasingly common health conditions to the smog, such as impairment of the immune system and “reproductive capacity”.

However, as the chart above illustrates, for investors who have hedged against the environmental challenge by investing in the environmental protection sector, this week may not be bad at all. Among other things, a policy announced by the Ministry of Environmental Protection demanded all major cities and environmental protection model cities to implement PM2.5 monitoring systems, which have boosted some companies in the sector.

Companies and brands affected
Xianhe Environmental Protection (SHE:300137)
Air and water testing equipment manufacturer. The company has been mentioned in recent news for winning major deals from government’s projects to build nationwide air monitoring network.

SDL Tech (SHE:002658)
Originally a dealer of imported equipment, the company has entered into manufacturing market by making air and smoke analysis equipment. In the end of October, media reported that the company won a bid from a Shandong water treatment company.

Beijing SPC Environment Protection Tech (SHE:002573) 
Desulfurisation equipment maker specialized in power plant emission reduction equipment manufacturing and solutions.

Skyray Instrument (SHE:300165)
Jiangsu-based company specialized in spectrometers, which are used in analyzing waste consistency. Trading suspended due to news of acquisition.

CPI Yuanda Environmental Protection (SHA:600292)
One of only three companies in China that are qualified to process low and medium radiation level nuclear waste. The company is also involved in air and water pollution treatment, as well as emission reduction.

Centre Testing International (SHE:300012) 
Industrial testing equipment manufacturer.

Fujian Longking (SHA:600388) 
China’s first listed industrial dust filtering material manufacturer.

Xiamen Savings Environmental (SHE:300056) 
Leading industrial dust filtering material manufacturer.

Links and sources
Tencent Finance channel: 报告称雾霾影响生育 环境治理再引关注
Legal Daily: 港媒:北京雾霾扰乱摄像头 影响警方监控恐怖份子
Economic Daily News (China News Service article): 雾霾天会导致肺癌 华东地区最小患者年仅8岁
South China Morning Post: Big brother blinded: Security fears in China as smog disrupts surveillance cameras

If you’d like to hire Danwei to track your company, investment or other topic of interest in China, please write to danwei@danwei.com and tell us what you want to follow.

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Ping An strengthens online financing arm with launch of Zhong An Insurance

The launch ceremony of China’s first online liability insurer, Zhong An Insurance, on Wednesday was attended by three of China’s most prominent personalities, namely Jack Ma of Alibaba, Pony Ma (Ma Huateng) of Tencent, and Ma Mingzhe, president of Ping An Insurance. Although the only one of the three operative in a traditional industry, Ma Mingzhe was the one who predicted an Internet revolution at the ceremony when he expressesd his vision of the future of the banking industry:

Bank branches will grow smaller and closer to neighborhoods, and become more intelligent and diversified. In ten years, 50% to 60% of credit cards and cash will disappear. In twenty years, the counters in banks will disappear.


Refraining from explicitly suggesting who exactly will take the place of the disappearing banks, Ma and his company was noted for making strides in the online financing industry with the launch of Lufax, a modified version of a P2P lending website that links small businesses with funders and investors. Interestingly, Ping An also acquired a more traditional bank, called Ping An Bank, which gave Ping An an advantage that few in the insurance industry enjoy.

Designed to cater to the increasing needs of online businesses for protection from liabilities, Zhong An carries with it the Internet pedigree inherited from its two major shareholders, Tencent and Alibaba. Yet these companies’ collaboration with Ping An may be a marriage of convenience, because a large insurer like Ping An was required to participate in order for the venture to obtain a business license. Nevertheless, for Ping An, Zhong An is perhaps the last step to complete an online financing edifice as envisioned by the company’s president.

Companies and brands affected
Tencent (HKG:00700)
Ping An Insurance (SHA:601318; HKG:2318)

Links and sources
Beijing Times: 三马同台首秀众安保险开业

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Pharma companies set to enter direct sales of nutritional supplements and beauty products?

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Two A-share market-listed pharma companies, Xiangxue Pharma and Kangmei Pharma, announced this week that they had obtained licenses to conduct direct sales.

Such licenses are under tight regulation for fear that they would be used to start pyramid schemes.

So far there are forty direct sales companies operating in China, most being cosmetics brands such as Avon or specialized health supplement brands such as Amway. Chinese media commentary on the two companies’ direct sales licenses has speculated that the companies are eying the dietary supplement market.

Xiangxue Pharma already owns a subsidiary that produces a variety of traditional Chinese medicine- based oral supplements that claim cosmetic benefits. According to the company’s own data, such products achieved sales of 193 million yuan by mid-2012, a figure that may be impressive given the size of the company, but meager compared to direct sales market leaders. Amway, for example, has annual sales of 27.1 billion yuan, and Perfect and Infinitus both have 12 billion each. The other company Kangmei Pharma is also reported to have launched a joint venture company last year with insurance giant PICC in the business of “health management”.

So far, the few other pharma companies that already have direct sales licenses are not doing very well with them. Harbin Pharma, for example, discontinued its direct sales department in 2010, two years after obtaining the license, when it was accused of operating a pyramid scheme. However, the market responded positively to the news and the stocks of both Xiangxue and Kangmei were boosted by the announcements.

The rationale might be that the health supplement and “cosmeceutical” (cosmetic-pharmaceutical) sectors are increasingly seen as an alternative source of growth, especially in the wake of recent government pressure to lower drug prices. This was corroborated by the recently released Q3 results of some companies. Yunnan Baiyao, a traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) company that originally produced anti-inflammatory drugs, was a pioneer in the cosmeceutical area. The company reported strong results in the first nine months of the year. Its net profit reached 1.9 billion yuan, 54.1% higher year-on-year. Strong growth in the company’s general health department, responsible for several TCM- based toothpastes, was cited as a factor.

In related news:
• A news article reports that the price of Dong-E E-Jiao – a donkey skin-based health supplement, has grown sharply in recent years
• Jiangzhong Pharma announced a hericium erinaceus-based biscuit that claims to soothe stomach discomfort

Companies and brands affected
Xiangxue Pharma (SHE:300147)
Kangmei Pharma (SHA:600518)
Harbin Pharma (SHA:600664
Yunnan Baiyao Group (SHE:000538)
Shan Dong Dong-E E-Jiao (SHE:000423)
Jiangzhong Pharma (SHA:600750)

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Is Yili poised to gain from China’s milk shortage?

Yili, a leading Chinese diary brand, posted record quarterly revenues of 12.55 billion yuan for the third quarter of 2013. To put it in perspective, the number is more than the total revenues of Guangming, one of Yili’s domestic competitors, in the first three quarters of the year. Mengniu, another competitor has not yet released its results.

One factor frequently cited by Chinese market observers is Yili’s ability to secure its supply of raw milk. The company owns more diary farms than either of its competitors. Mengniu, for example, relies more on individual farmers, which makes it more vulnerable to quality problems that have sunk domestic brands such as Sanlu.

Yili’s advantage appears particularly pronounced in a time when China is experiencing a sort of “milk crunch”. According to a report that appeared on today’s China Business News, the number of milk cows nationwide has dropped to somewhere between eight and nine million, a low point in recent years. The article attributes the change to a variety of factors including rising beef prices, outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease and farmers’ lack of confidence in the future of the dairy industry in the aftermath of several serious food safety scandals.

Despite strong growth, the company’s results still fell short of investors’ expectations – Yili’s stock price dropped slightly after the release of the results.

Companies and brands affected
Yili (SHA:600887)

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Chinese pharma companies rush to invest in hospitals

Gold FerrariFollowing Guangzhou Bayunshan Pharma’s announcement that it plans to invest five billion yuan in high-end hospitals and a strong rally in the health care sector in China’s A-share market last week, several newspaper articles have appeared beating the drum for investing in so-called “private hospital concept stocks”.

One such article appeared on China Business Times 中华工商时报, a national business newspaper. The article attributes the strong stock market performance of several A-share listed pharma companies that have holdings of hospital-related assets to the government’s favorable policies and apparent hostility to foreign pharma companies. The author quotes a source estimating that a turning point has been reached for the private hospital industry. The source also listed a number of listed companies that he believed are poised to gain from the forthcoming private hospital boom – companies that are either already active in the private hospital industry or who plan to do so.

Equally bullish, Metropolis Express 都市快报, a Hangzhou newspaper, quotes an industry insider who says that many big investment institutions see private hospitals as the next big thing. The article compares private sector hospitals to private sector banks, reasoning that hospitals are better investments given government incentive policies and relative lower entry barriers for newcomers.

The positive outlook is not shared by everyone. Today, another newspaper, Private Economy News 私营经济报 took a skeptical view on the trend of pharma companies buying into the hospital industry. The article quotes Ge Jianqiu (葛剑秋), former vice president of Shanghai Pharma, who says that many pharma companies only do it to burnish their annual reports and many of these investors have no experience of running hospitals. Another source, Li Su (李肃), president of a corporate consultancy, expresses doubt as to whether such a trend will last. Li believes that over the long term, hospitals’ margins will be squeezed as medical reform deepens.

None of the articles mention Chindex International, a Nasdaq-listed company that began selling medical equipment from the US to China in the 1980s. Chindex now operates a chain of high-end private hospitals in Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin and Guangzhou. While the clinics initially cater to expatriates living in China, the growing number of wealthy Chinese patients promise a rosy future for the hospital chain. The image above shows a gold-plated Ferrari (from Shanghai-based writer Abe Sauer), a typical sight outside Beijing Family United clinics.

Companies and brands affected
Shanghai Forsun Pharmaceutical (HKG:02196 SH:600196)
Guangzhou Baiyunshan Pharmaceutical (HKG:00874 SH:600332)
Chindex International, Inc. (NASDAQ:CHDX)
Aier Eye Hospital Group Co Ltd. (SZ:300015)
Topchoice Medical Corporation (SH:600763)
Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) (SH:600196)
Gansu Duyiwei Biological Phrmctcl Co Ltd. (SZ:002219)
Xian Kaiyuan Holding Group Co., Ltd. (SZ:000516)
Zhejiang DA Diagnostics Co Ltd (SZ:300244)
Da An Gene Co., Ltd. of Sun Yat-Sen Uni. (SZ:002030)
Shanghai Kehua Bio-Engineering Co., Ltd. (SZ:002022)
Beijing Leadman Biochemistry Co Ltd. (SZ:300289)
Jiangsu Yuyue Mdcl Eqpmnt & Sply Co Ltd. (SZ:002223)
Beijing Tongrentang Co., Ltd. (SH: 601607, Hong Kong related companies not mentioned in text HKG:8138 and 1666)
Yunnan Baiyao Group Co., Ltd. (SZ:000538)
Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical Co. 片仔癀 (SH: 601607)

Links and sources 
Abe Sauer on Twitter; image source
Private Economy News: 药企成资本掘金民营医院主力军 短炒业绩或难成长久战略
China Business Times: 民营医疗概念上市公司值得期待
Metropolis Express: 民营医院概念股大涨后续仍有机会

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Starbucks price comparison after the CCTV attack

Starbucks in The Forbidden City, Beijing, ChinaOn October 8, China Business News, a publication owned by SMG, a media conglomerate controlled by the Shanghai city government, published a report attacking Starbucks’ high prices in China. On October 20, China Central Television (CCTV) broadcast a story targeting the high prices of Starbucks coffee and mugs. The stories have been repeated in different versions in various media outlets.

The CCTV story uses man on the street interviews in Beijing, Chicago and Mumbai to emphasize the high prices of Starbucks China compared to other countries. The CCTV report says a cup of 354 milliliters of latte coffee costs 27 yuan (USD4.4) in China as compared to only 19.98 yuan in Chicago, 14.6 yuan in Mumbai and 24.25 yuan in London. Starbucks stainless steel cups, which are made in China, are sold at about 97 yuan to 122 yuan (USD 16-20) in the US, while in China they cost between 220 to 350 yuan (USD 36 to 58). Netizens, however, are laughing at CCTV’s report for its injustice and suggested CCTV to go after the de facto monopolies, as reported by other media outlets such as Tea Leaf Nation and South China Morning Post.

Danwei contacted branches in Chaoyang District, Chaoyang Park/Sanlitun area, one of the most popular destinations for shopping and relaxation in Beijing, of the chains Starbucks, Costa Coffee, Up Bridge Coffee (上岛咖啡) and Pacific Coffee Company to compare coffee prices. Starbucks prices actually compare favorably with other similar chain stores.

Brand Latte Americano Cheapest
Prices in yuan.
Starbucks 27/30/33 22/25/28 17
Costa Coffee 28/31/34 22/25/28 15
Up Bridge Coffee 36 32 32
Pacific Coffee Company 27/30/33 22/25/28 22

 

  • In each cell, the listed prices are in the order from the smallest size to the largest size offered.
  • While the sizes offered in Starbucks and Pacific Coffee Company are 12oz, 16oz and 20oz, Costa Coffee offers 12oz, 14oz and 16oz; the only size offered at the Up Bridge Coffee is about 12oz.
  • The cheapest coffee at Starbucks is the weekly special filter coffee; at Costa is an espresso. At Up Bridge and Pacific Coffee, the cheapest offering is an Americano.
  • Up Bridge Coffee offers various flavored latte coffees, and the one listed above is their cheapest one.

 

Companies and brands affected
Starbucks Corporation (NASDAQ:SBUX)

Links and sources

China Business News: 星巴克中国“暴利”:亚太区利润率为欧洲16倍
CCTV: 星巴克咖啡中国市场高价
china.org.cn: CCTV: Chinese pay higher price for Starbucks coffee
Tea Leaf Nation: China’s Silly War on Starbucks Lattes
South China Morning Post: CCTV’s criticism of Starbucks ‘pricey coffee’ prompts online backlash

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Big three Chinese telecom operators criticized for profiting from spam

SpamBeijing Times 京华时报 yesterday published an article (based on a report in the CCTV 1 program Focus Interview 焦点访谈) analyzing the profit chain of spam texts sent by China’s three leading telecommunication operators. According to the report, many spam texts are sent from numbers starting with 106, and such numbers can only be used by China Mobile, China Unicom and China Telecom. Such numbers were originally for internal and work units’ use only, but in recent years the big three telecom operators have provided bulk spam sms services to all-comers and profiting accordingly.

According to the report, a small bulk SMS advertising company who sends out ten million texts monthly can make a profit of about 200 thousand yuan, but the big three telecom operators can make about 300 thousand yuan and provide bulk sms advertising services at cheaper rates.

Companies and brands affected
China Mobile (HKG:0941)
China Unicom (HKG:0762)
China Telecom (HKG:0728)

Links and sources
Beijing Times: 三大运营商指法垃圾短信获利

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Will a tax rebate rejuvenate China’s restaurant industry?

1326677756According to a Southern Daily 南方日报 report, Wang Huiying (王惠英), vice inspector of the “Trade in Services and Commercial Services Department” of Ministry of Commerce, revealed that the Ministry is seeking to lower the business tax rate for restaurants from the current level of 5% to 3%. Speaking at a recent restaurant industry conference, Wang also said that the ministry also seeks to lower the fees that banks charge for credit card transactions.

The restaurant industry has been struggling because of rising wages and rents as well as government’s austerity policies. Worth noting is that Wang said the tax reduction will likely to only apply to low-and middle-end restaurants, so at least for the more expensive ones, now is still not the time to celebrate the end of austerity.

Links and sources 
Southern Daily: 商务部:拟下调餐饮业营业税银行刷卡费率

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